The Institute for the Study of War estimated that Russia’s loss of its base in Syria would have significant implications for its global military footprint and its ability to operate in Africa.
The US-based institute noted that Russia used its naval base in Tartus to project power in the Mediterranean, threaten NATO’s southern flank, and link its operations in the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.
The institute believed that the loss of Russian bases in Syria would disrupt Russian logistics, resupply efforts, and the rotation of the Africa Corps, particularly weakening Russia’s operations and projection of power in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa.
The US institute warned that Russia would seek to leverage its presence in Libya or Sudan as alternatives, adding that the lack of formal agreements with these countries and the inadequate infrastructure make them inadequate alternatives.
The institute noted that the collapse of the Assad regime and Russia’s inability to maintain it would damage Russia’s global image as a reliable ally and its broader geopolitical goal of emerging as a global super power.
