Promising future for Libya’s oil production

Libya is actively pursuing a significant increase in its oil production over the next three years, aiming to reach 2 million barrels per day (bpd) – according to the newly-appointed head of the National Oil Corporation (NOC). As of January 2025, Libya’s output stands at approximately 1.41 million bpd.

To achieve this ambitious target, the Libyan Government of National Unity and the NOC have outlined several strategic initiatives.

Financial Investment

The Acting Oil and Gas Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq has indicated that an investment of $3-4 billion is necessary to elevate production to 1.6 million bpd, with further funds required to reach the 2 million bpd goal.

Licensing and Exploration

A new licensing round for oil and gas exploration is anticipated to receive cabinet approval by the end of January 2025. This round will encompass three geological basins—Sirte, Murzuq, and Ghadames—and will offer between 15 to 21 blocks for exploration. Notably, this marks the first such bidding round in 17 years, highlighting a renewed focus on expanding exploration activities.

International Partnerships

Italy’s energy company Eni plans to commence exploration in Libya’s Ghadames basin in 2025, underscoring Libya’s attractiveness to foreign investors. Eni’s North Africa head, Martina Opizzi, emphasized the country’s significance for oil and gas production and revealed plans for future offshore exploration.

Challenges and Solutions

Despite these positive developments, Libya’s oil sector continues to face challenges, particularly due to political instability. In 2024, the country experienced several politically motivated blockades at ports and oil fields, which temporarily disrupted production.

However, Libyan crude exports demonstrated resilience, with only a 2% decrease compared to the previous year. Exports averaged over 1 million bpd in six out of the twelve months, reaching 1.15 million bpd in December 2024—the highest monthly average since February 2021.

While Libya’s goal of increasing oil production to 2 million bpd by 2028 is ambitious, it is underpinned by strategic investments, renewed exploration efforts, and international collaborations. Nonetheless, the realization of this objective will depend on the country’s ability to maintain political stability and secure the necessary financial commitments.

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