Opinion

The 10 points summarizing Hafter’s Oil Blockade

Is the blockade a Bluff! or would it continue for a longer period? Is that a possibility that Hafter’s oil blockage will continue for months, because he refuses to back down about the war

  1. There will be negative repercussions resulting out of Hafter’s continued stopping of production and the closure of ports in Libya, leading to a decline in exports to zero, and the diminishing of foreign exchange reserves, there will be an increased financial burden resulting in the worsening deterioration of the living conditions of citizens.
  2. destabilizing the national income of the country, which is estimates at about $ 87 billion, which means such reserves will suffice Libya for 2.5 half years at the yearly spending rates of 30 billion dollars per year.
  3. The state of Libya last year for example spent 4.8 billion dinars to support all types of fuel only, which translates in 72 billion dollars of foreign reserves were used in past seven years. There will be delays in the payment of the salaries of the 1.3 million Libyan citizens who receive their wages from oil revenues.
  4. Take the city of Benghazi for example: It has gasoline reserves only sufficient for 14 days, and diesel reserves that are sufficient for 7 days only, and cooking gas quantities that are sufficient for 13 days. As for the city of Sebha, the stocks of gasoline and cooking gas there is ZERO, where the city’s stocks of diesel are only enough for 11 days.
  5. The closure of oil fields and ports on January 17th by Hafter Tribal allies – has meant a loss of 1.2 million bpd.
  6. Losses incurred by national and international companies such as “Eni Italy, Spain’s Repsol, France’s Total, Austria’s OMV and Norway’s Avenor”. because of Hafter’s oil closure and in preventing the transfer of crude oil to the export terminals and have expressed their concerns about the consequences of the current siege on the Libyan people and energy production facilities. “Eni”, alone losses a revenue of nine million dollars per day.
  7. Hafter’s oil closure will not encourage the international oil companies to come to Libya and to resume their investment in exploration program (such as: Eni and British company BP joint efforts that was expected before the closure) which was postponed due to the closure.
  8. Hafter’s ban on exports from Libya’s eastern ports, such as Brega, Ras Lanuf, Al-Harika, Zuaitina and Sidra, has resulted in a significant decline in production with financial losses estimated at $40 million per day, the largest ever losses since the attacks of last September on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
  9. In general, the main concerns are focused on how long the main export terminals in Libya will remain closed by Hafter – especially, Europe is the largest oil importer in Libya!.Because and if the interruption continues beyond the oil refining season in Europe, the impact will be significant in the market.
  10. Finally, can Hafter’s oil blockade is seen as an invitation for the influential players such as the United States to play a mediating role, as they have done in the past. However, there are few indications that the USA and other foreign powers will play the role of mediator, especially since the ceasefire was soon violated after the Berlin conference by Hafter.
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