The Berlin Conference; The Aftermath, and the FOUR MUSKETEERS?

Saturday 19th January 2020.. was a day where the Libyan people hoped to hear good news of ceasefire which will eventually lead to the return of the internally displaced people (IDP) – as well as the return to the political track and negotiations to reach a lasting solution and political settlement in which the issue of wealth distribution is fairly addressed through the establishment of the decentralization confederal system.

However, the leaders that gathered in Berlin couldn’t address the main issue of ceasefire and so couldn’t before them Putin!! And all couldn’t even criminalize the Libyan party that wouldn’t sign the ceasefire treaty (i.e., Hafter), rather they expressed their frustration and later some condemnations.

Whilst, The Government of National Accord (GNA) provided its ceasefire signature which is considered as a sign of political courage despite its internal opposition – on the contrary we found Hafter is resolved on his military assault on Tripoli and the Western Region of Libya, where ¾ of the Libyan population reside. In 72 hours Hafter manages to fail the Berlin conference –and its leaders and further violates the truce and ceasefire – where he starts to re-mass his army (which incidentally 80% is composed of street militias that are vested and bound by oath to avenge the wrongs inflicted on them and, in pursuit of revenge, where he and his army will stop at nothing). In 72 hours, we witnessed a dramatic movements and military build-up by Hafter and alliances (mainly: the UAE, KSA and Egypt + France) – who have convinced Hafter of NOT TO SIGN and who have re-assured him of their military, economic and political support. all, in escalation – beating the drums of war – wanting him to conquest the city of Tripoli and the Western Region despite all of the ugly consequences. Furthermore, and in those 72 hours, we see Emirates ordering Hafter to stop the oil and gas production in Libya – with a move for the UAE to compensate such oil production losses of 1.2 million barrels per day (i.e., 85,000,000 US$ of oil revenue per day), that use to enter the Libyan Central Bank), by doing so, the UAE, guarantees that the international oil market is not impacted by such oil production losses, and, the Emirates will start receiving those daily petrodollar revenues to solidify their stand and to sustain Hafter’s war costs. (a through meaning of proxy war for their vested interests in Libya and the North-Africa Region!).

The question asked which still remains before the international community (especially, the Brits, the Americans and the Germans), and the Libyan neighbouring countries (namely Algeria and Tunisia)….Is, that the only way forward in Libya (i.e., The way of the Four Musketeers “Emirates, KSA, Egypt and France”?. Such way in addressing the opposing International Players of their differences and interests in Libya at the expenses of innocent Libyans (blood and destruction of their country), is considered unsustainable and has disastrous and far damaging consequences – mostly the re-emerging and growth of terrorism in the region which will badly infest and impact Europe, as well as that, the other direct suffering from the UAE war strategy in Libya, the Libyan people will be directly and badly impacted – where 33% of Libyan population depend on government salaries and government subsidised fuel all amounting to 22 billion $ per year. By allowing the UAE stopping the flow of 1.2 million barrels per day and re-producing them from their side, they are allowed to “not only subsidizing the war in Libya but further to increasing the suffering of the Libyan people by making the 33% of Libyans whom receive government salaries face a deadly destiny as well as bringing Libya to its knees and a total collapse (a make or break strategy)!. In return, and in a more politically sustainable manner – we find the efforts of the GNA that is legally and internationally recognized government pour in the shaping of Libya to becoming a Civil State Establishment, which, eventually leads to a more comprehensive and sustainable state aiming at a long and a lasting solution in Libya; including, the addressing of the wealth management and distribution issue, which is one of the main, true and underlying issues of the Libyan War!.

A sustainable solution that will bring about, the implementation of the UN arms embargo, the stop of the use of the foreign mercenaries and the stop of migration.

The stop of Oil Production in Libya by the Emirates deeply touches the Libyan sovereignty and the Libyan people’s survival and security – as it where and before the UAE stoppage of the Oil Production in Libya – we have seen very good improvement of the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) Performance as well as the management of its subsidiary and foreign oil companies – where the NOC managed to maintain Libya’s oil and gas flowing through difficult times where the NOC remind as neutral and professional Libyan organization that is civilly managed! And where it managed to generate revenues for all Libyans of US$ 20 billion per year, which economically has contributed of keeping the foreign Central Bank of Libya Reserves more than US$ 85 as well as another US$ 15 billion are still deposited at the Libya Investment Authority (LIA), therefore, totalling to a reserve of US$ 100 billion.

The UAE Oil Stoppage in Libya will badly impact this health healthy economic situation in Libya and will Libya behind in Oil & Gas Production by depriving Libya from necessary Oil and Gas Development and Infrastructure Constructions and Investments by interested International Oil and Gas Companies! To whom exactly such setback works for? And how is it seeing justified by the International Community?

Question: to those who physically turned-off the Oil and Gas Production – (i.e., why would you do so? knowing the UAE strategy against the Libyan people as a whole?, and why would Hafter and the Emirates hide behind the Libyan Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG) and Eastern Tribes in turning off of the Oil and Gas Tabs?. And, what are the legal implications for Ben-Zayed and Hafter to hind behind you? And, why the international community kept inaudible about it, whilst deeply knowing the sever economic and hamartian damages such act will bring upon the Libyan People? We warn from such oil and gas closure behaviour becoming a custom for everybody including terrorist groups as they did in Syria.
Finally, instead of the summoning of Hafter and his alliance (The Four Musketeers!) – to committing them into a lasting ceasefire and political dialogue – involving the UNSMIL “Gassan” and the International Community, especially the Americans, the British and the German – instead, we see all of those trying to use the policy of appeasement with Hafter and Co. as if, they are somehow IMPLICATED!, to that I, conclude by quoting the well-known Libyan proverb that says………………. (من يقدر يقول للاسد فمك نتن) (translation: Who can say to the lion your mouth stinks)?!!!

By Yahya Al-Agel


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