Oil Price website said in a report on Friday that Russia had been setting up a major new strategy in which not only the Haftar-Moscow links were being strengthened but also the option of putting Europe’s energy supply at risk.
The website said that some experts had indicated that the current Russia-Haftar discussions have only one main target: to hold Europe to ransom.
“While most of Haftar’s military or political decisions are assessed as his own, it now seems that Moscow is partly leading the discussion, enforcing a possible Russian hold on North Africa’s oil and gas future.” Oil Price said.
It added that in recent weeks, Haftar’s closure of Libya’s El Sharara oil field, with a capacity of 300,000 bpd, mainly hit supplies to European clients, as 80% of the production used to flow to Europe.
El Sharara’s leading operators include Norwegian energy giant Equinor, Austria’s OMV, France’s TotalEnergies, and Spanish operator Repsol.
“Moscow’s assessment of the situation is clear. A potential conflict between Libya’s LNA-backed powers and European oil and gas operators presents an opening for Russian interests. Gazprom, or possibly a newly merged Russian entity combining Gazprom Neft, Rosneft, and Lukoil, could step in.” It added.
“With around 3,000 mercenaries in Libya, Moscow views the country as a potential hub for further expansion into Africa. Strengthening ties with Haftar benefits both the Libyan warlord—who is losing support from Abu Dhabi and Egypt—and Putin’s struggling regime.” The report explained.
If successful, the report adds, Moscow could not only weaponize Libya’s energy resources but also gain access to valuable minerals and metals in the country and Sub-Saharan Africa. Libya has shown growing interest in joining BRICS, presenting an economic and political alternative to Western alliances. Libyan officials confirmed this interest during the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum (November 9–10) in Sochi, Russia, though no official invitation has been extended yet.
The website also mentioned a report from last month by investigative platform Eekad that said Moscow had stepped up its military presence in Libya.
“Russian forces have established several air bridges to the Brak Al Shati base since March, and increased activities have been reported at four other strategic military bases: Al-Jufra, Al-Gardabiya, Al-Khadim, and the port of Tobruk. Moscow appears intent on using eastern Libya’s oil and gas regions as a gateway into Africa.” Eekad said.
Current Libyan crude oil production stands at 1.36 million bpd, with aspirations to reach 2 million bpd by the end of 2025, according tot he National Oil Corportaion.
